Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Manchester City EPL points deduction before Jan 1, 2028
Vol $0 today · $14 total
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Vol $3K today · $3.3M total
Kalshi is 56 points higher than Polymarket (69% vs 13%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs May 30), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 69% | 13% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $3K |
| Total volume | $14 | $3.3M |
| Liquidity | — | $134.1K |
| Open interest | $14 | — |
| Resolves | 14mo | 7mo |
| Tracked for | 15 days | 14 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the English Premier League imposes a points deduction of at least 50 points in the Premier League on Manchester City, as officially announced before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship per the rules of English Premier League (EPL) (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from English Premier League (EPL); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.