Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Manchester City Premier League titles stripped before Jan 1, 2028
Vol $0 today · $2.3K total
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Vol $755 today · $895.5K total
Kalshi is 17 points higher than Polymarket (24% vs 8%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jun 20), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 24% | 8% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $755 |
| Total volume | $2.3K | $895.5K |
| Liquidity | — | $255.3K |
| Open interest | $2.3K | — |
| Resolves | 15mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the English Premier League imposes a sanction stripping at least 3 Premier League title(s) on Manchester City, as officially announced before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.