Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Manchester City Premier League titles stripped before Jan 1, 2028
Vol $0 today · $2.3K total
Kalshi is 6 points higher than Polymarket (24% vs 18%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Oct 20), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 24% | 18% |
| Change (24h) | -1.0 pt | +2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $1.9K |
| Total volume | $2.3K | $2K |
| Liquidity | — | $17.6K |
| Open interest | $2.3K | — |
| Resolves | 15mo | 6h |
| Tracked for | 11 days | 3 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the English Premier League imposes a sanction stripping at least 3 Premier League title(s) on Manchester City, as officially announced before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 5 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "AEK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this ma…
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.