Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?
Vol $1.6K today · $13.4K total
Will Ro Khanna be the next Speaker of the House?
Vol $19.1K today · $55.1K total
Both markets price this about the same, around 1%. Kalshi trades about 11.6× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | -48.6 pt | -6.0 pt |
| Volume today | $1.6K | $19.1K |
| Total volume | $13.4K | $55.1K |
| Liquidity | $15.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $39.6K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 50mo |
| Tracked for | 23 days | 3 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Ro Khanna is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.