Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Pat Adams be the next White House Press Secretary?
Vol $226 today · $226 total
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary before Jan 20, 2029?
Vol $47.9K today · $93.7K total
Both markets price this about the same, around 1%. Kalshi trades about 212.5× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 27), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 2% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $226 | $47.9K |
| Total volume | $226 | $93.7K |
| Liquidity | $11.9K | — |
| Open interest | — | $74K |
| Resolves | 15mo | 28mo |
| Tracked for | 36 hours | 2 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Kari Lake formally holds the position of White House Press Secretary before Jan 20, 2029, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.