Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?
Vol $0 today · $21.9K total
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Vol $71.7K today · $14.1M total
Kalshi is 46 points higher than Polymarket (53% vs 7%). They resolve on different dates (Jul 1 vs Nov 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 53% | 7% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $71.7K |
| Total volume | $21.9K | $14.1M |
| Liquidity | — | $401.5K |
| Open interest | $8.1K | — |
| Resolves | 9mo | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 9 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Kamala Harris has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.