Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 30 before they leave the role or their departure is announced?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Vol $92.3K today · $160K total
Kalshi is 33 points higher than Polymarket (85% vs 53%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 21 vs Dec 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 85% | 53% |
| Change (24h) | +1.0 pt | -8.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $92.3K |
| Total volume | $0 | $160K |
| Liquidity | — | $37.6K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 42d |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 3 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves is at least 30 days before they leave the role or their departure is announced, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Katie Zacharia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.