Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 12 points higher than Kalshi (40% vs 28%). They resolve on different dates (Dec 30 vs Jul 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 28% | 40% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -25.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $6.8K |
| Total volume | $308 | $7K |
| Liquidity | — | $44.2K |
| Open interest | $250 | — |
| Resolves | 14mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 28 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 8.50% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.