Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Vol $21.1K today · $2.2M total
Kalshi is 19 points higher than Polymarket (20% vs 1%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 8 vs Apr 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 20% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +1.0 pt | +0.2 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $21.1K |
| Total volume | $6.9K | $2.2M |
| Liquidity | — | $146.7K |
| Open interest | $498 | — |
| Resolves | 15mo | 5mo |
| Tracked for | 9 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If U2 performs at the Las Vegas Sphere in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.