Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Vol $54.7K today · $1.5M total
Kalshi is 67 points higher than Polymarket (96% vs 29%). Polymarket trades about 59.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 2 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 29% | 96% |
| Change (24h) | -14.0 pt | -1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $54.7K | $917 |
| Total volume | $1.5M | $224K |
| Liquidity | $78.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $58K |
| Resolves | 60d | 160mo |
| Tracked for | 18 days | 25 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes un…
Kalshi
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.