Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Vol $0 today · $69.1K total
Kalshi is 20 points higher than Polymarket (20% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Aug 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 20% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $20 |
| Total volume | $69.1K | $31.9K |
| Liquidity | $37.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $10.9K |
| Resolves | 12mo | 34mo |
| Tracked for | 24 days | 31 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Kalshi
If Conservative receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.