Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will New York City experience population change between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?
Vol $37 today · $23.4K total
Kalshi is 24 points higher than Polymarket (32% vs 8%). Polymarket trades about 746.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jun 1 vs Jul 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 32% | 8% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $37 | $27.6K |
| Total volume | $23.4K | $959.7K |
| Liquidity | — | $191K |
| Open interest | $8.9K | — |
| Resolves | 20mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the population change in New York City is between -0.99% and 0% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named as the champion of NBA for the 2026-27 season per the rules of NBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NBA: however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.