Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Vol $0 today · $22.9K total
Will the Democratic party win the House in 2028?
Vol $1.2K today · $17.8K total
Kalshi is 72 points higher than Polymarket (73% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 28 vs Feb 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 73% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -3.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $1.2K |
| Total volume | $22.9K | $17.8K |
| Liquidity | $47K | — |
| Open interest | — | $9K |
| Resolves | 7d | 28mo |
| Tracked for | 6 days | 12 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the el…
Kalshi
If the Democratic party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.