Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Vol $71 today · $38.8K total
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?
Vol $27 today · $32.3K total
Kalshi is 79 points higher than Polymarket (90% vs 12%). Polymarket trades about 2.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 12% | 90% |
| Change (24h) | -1.0 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $71 | $27 |
| Total volume | $38.8K | $32.3K |
| Liquidity | $14.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $21.5K |
| Resolves | 8mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retrac…
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.