Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Vol $0 today · $4.6K total
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Vol $2.3K today · $18.5M total
Kalshi is 2 points higher than Polymarket (4% vs 2%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 4% | 2% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | +0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $2.3K |
| Total volume | $4.6K | $18.5M |
| Liquidity | — | $320.8K |
| Open interest | $4.5K | — |
| Resolves | 25mo | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 8 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Wes Moore is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.