Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Vol $1.8K today · $4.8M total
Polymarket is 2 points higher than Kalshi (4% vs 2%). Polymarket trades about 81.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 7 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 2% | 4% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | -0.8 pt |
| Volume today | $1.8K | $150.2K |
| Total volume | $4.8M | $13M |
| Liquidity | — | $349.7K |
| Open interest | $3M | — |
| Resolves | 25mo | 70d |
| Tracked for | 14 days | 7 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.