Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Vol $814 today · $488K total
Will Ludvig Aberg win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?
Vol $7 today · $35 total
Kalshi is 44 points higher than Polymarket (48% vs 5%). Polymarket trades about 122.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jun 20 vs Jul 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 5% | 48% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $814 | $7 |
| Total volume | $488K | $35 |
| Liquidity | $374.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $15 |
| Resolves | 8mo | 45mo |
| Tracked for | 16 days | 16 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship per the rules of UEFA Champions League (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League season is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Ludvig Aberg wins a golf major championship (including The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) before 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.