Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?
Vol $4.6K today · $31.5K total
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Vol $2.6K today · $173.9K total
Kalshi is 39 points higher than Polymarket (95% vs 56%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 95% | 56% |
| Change (24h) | +5.0 pt | +3.0 pt |
| Volume today | $4.6K | $2.6K |
| Total volume | $31.5K | $173.9K |
| Liquidity | — | $104.1K |
| Open interest | $21.4K | — |
| Resolves | 8mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 11 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement of…
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.