Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Vol $1.7K today · $663.4K total
Kalshi is 15 points higher than Polymarket (24% vs 10%). Polymarket trades about 1379.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 24% | 10% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $1 | $1.7K |
| Total volume | $235 | $663.4K |
| Liquidity | — | $157.2K |
| Open interest | $227 | — |
| Resolves | 8mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before June 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.