Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Vol $55.3K today · $584.4K total
Kalshi is 34 points higher than Polymarket (59% vs 26%). Polymarket trades about 298.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 7 vs Nov 4), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 59% | 26% |
| Change (24h) | -1.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $185 | $55.3K |
| Total volume | $2K | $584.4K |
| Liquidity | — | $240.5K |
| Open interest | $766 | — |
| Resolves | 37mo | 14d |
| Tracked for | 12 days | 5 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Nevada for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.