Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Oct 1, 2027?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 48 points higher than Polymarket (52% vs 4%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 52% | 4% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +0.2 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $120.8K |
| Total volume | $0 | $16.3M |
| Liquidity | — | $320.7K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 11mo | 64d |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.