Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will D.C. be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?
Vol $37 today · $122.3K total
Polymarket is 23 points higher than Kalshi (23% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 27.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 20 vs Oct 17), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 23% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -19.5 pt |
| Volume today | $37 | $1K |
| Total volume | $122.3K | $1K |
| Liquidity | — | $2K |
| Open interest | $67.4K | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | — |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 38 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the 51st state is District of Columbia before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
In the upcoming college football game between Mississippi State and LSU, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Mississippi State score 21 or more points in this game. If Mississippi State score less than 21 points in this game, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on Mississippi State's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.