Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
Vol $0 today · $20.9K total
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Vol $25.7K today · $10.7M total
Kalshi is 61 points higher than Polymarket (63% vs 1%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 21 vs Nov 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 63% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $25.7K |
| Total volume | $20.9K | $10.7M |
| Liquidity | — | $694.3K |
| Open interest | $14.1K | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 11 days | 11 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Donald Trump Jr. has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.