Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 11 points higher than Polymarket (11% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 27 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +11.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $2 |
| Total volume | $2.1K | $2 |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $2 |
| Resolves | — | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 18 days | 9 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Kalshi
If Kylian Mbappe wins the men's Ballon d'Or in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.