Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Who will win the next New York City mayoral election?
Vol $9 today · $6.1K total
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Vol $246.1K today · $3.1M total
Polymarket is 41 points higher than Kalshi (51% vs 11%). Polymarket trades about 26923.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 6 vs Jun 3), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 11% | 51% |
| Change (24h) | -0.5 pt | +7.7 pt |
| Volume today | $9 | $246.1K |
| Total volume | $6.1K | $3.1M |
| Liquidity | — | $166.9K |
| Open interest | $4.1K | — |
| Resolves | 49mo | — |
| Tracked for | 14 days | 14 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Jessica Tisch wins the next New York City mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.