Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
Vol $984 today · $54.3K total
Polymarket is 61 points higher than Kalshi (71% vs 11%). Polymarket trades about 24.6× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 11% | 71% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $40 | $984 |
| Total volume | $8.7K | $54.3K |
| Liquidity | — | $146.9K |
| Open interest | $4.6K | — |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 17 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement of…
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.