Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Vol $0 today · $372.4K total
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Vol $118 today · $6.8K total
Kalshi is 6 points higher than Polymarket (6% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Sep 14 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 6% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +3.3 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $118 |
| Total volume | $372.4K | $6.8K |
| Liquidity | $121.1K | — |
| Open interest | — | $3.4K |
| Resolves | — | 222mo |
| Tracked for | 6 days | 10 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Avigdor Lieberman, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.