Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
When will IShowSpeed reach 100 million Youtube subscribers?
Vol $0 today · $1.7K total
Kalshi is 74 points higher than Polymarket (75% vs 1%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Nov 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 75% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.2 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $13.6K |
| Total volume | $1.7K | $338.4K |
| Liquidity | — | $89.4K |
| Open interest | $1.1K | — |
| Resolves | 39mo | 15d |
| Tracked for | 8 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If @IShowSpeed has at least 100,000,000 subscribers before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.