Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2029 F1 season?
Vol $0 today · $748 total
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Vol $5.3K today · $6.5M total
Kalshi is 51 points higher than Polymarket (52% vs 1%). They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Dec 6), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 52% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.4 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $5.3K |
| Total volume | $748 | $6.5M |
| Liquidity | — | $314.1K |
| Open interest | $426 | — |
| Resolves | 42mo | 46d |
| Tracked for | 11 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Max Verstappen announces his retirement from F1 before the 2029 F1 season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.