Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Corey Conners win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Vol $363 today · $650.7K total
Kalshi is 34 points higher than Polymarket (49% vs 15%). They resolve on different dates (Jul 7 vs Jun 15), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 49% | 15% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $363 |
| Total volume | $0 | $650.7K |
| Liquidity | — | $246.2K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 45mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 11 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Corey Conners wins a golf major championship (including The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) before 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship per the rules of LALIGA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 LALIGA season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from LALIGA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.