Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 2 points higher than Polymarket (2% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 15 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 2% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $149.5K |
| Total volume | $49.3K | $543.3K |
| Liquidity | — | $21.8K |
| Open interest | $25.4K | — |
| Resolves | 51mo | 69d |
| Tracked for | 14 days | 3 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Mexico is the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.