Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Vol $42.2K today · $740.4K total
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?
Vol $217 today · $1.4K total
Kalshi is 72 points higher than Polymarket (72% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 194.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jul 25), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 72% |
| Change (24h) | -0.8 pt | -5.0 pt |
| Volume today | $42.2K | $217 |
| Total volume | $740.4K | $1.4K |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.4K |
| Resolves | 15mo | 21mo |
| Tracked for | 8 days | 12 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Kyriakos Mitsotakis becomes Prime Minister of Greece as a result of government formation following the next Greek general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jul 25, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.