Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
Vol $81.2K today · $177.6K total
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Hampshire
Vol $231 today · $171.4K total
Both markets price this about the same, around 6%. Polymarket trades about 351.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 4 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 6% | 6% |
| Change (24h) | -7.6 pt | +0.4 pt |
| Volume today | $81.2K | $231 |
| Total volume | $177.6K | $171.4K |
| Liquidity | $269.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $162.1K |
| Resolves | 16d | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 6 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published…
Kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.