Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Vol $6K today · $28.1M total
Will Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket?
Vol $100 today · $279 total
Polymarket is 14 points higher than Kalshi (17% vs 3%). Polymarket trades about 59.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 17% | 3% |
| Change (24h) | +0.4 pt | -0.4 pt |
| Volume today | $6K | $100 |
| Total volume | $28.1M | $279 |
| Liquidity | $380.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $267 |
| Resolves | 25mo | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Kalshi
If the Democratic presidential nominee is Gavin Newsom AND the Democratic vice presidential nominee is Gretchen Whitmer in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.