Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
Vol $415 today · $415 total
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Vol $2.4K today · $370.2K total
Kalshi is 7 points higher than Polymarket (8% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 5.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 8 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 8% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | +4.5 pt | -0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $415 | $2.4K |
| Total volume | $415 | $370.2K |
| Liquidity | — | $56K |
| Open interest | $415 | — |
| Resolves | 100mo | 15mo |
| Tracked for | 12 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Rupert Lowe formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.