Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol $38 today · $50.3K total
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?
Vol $94 today · $2.7K total
Kalshi is 11 points higher than Polymarket (12% vs 1%). Kalshi trades about 2.5× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Apr 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 12% |
| Change (24h) | +0.1 pt | -8.5 pt |
| Volume today | $38 | $94 |
| Total volume | $50.3K | $2.7K |
| Liquidity | $21.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.2K |
| Resolves | 67d | 5mo |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 16 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.