Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will West Virginia enact a data center moratorium before 2028?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Vol $104 today · $637.4K total
Polymarket is 30 points higher than Kalshi (30% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 30% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $104 |
| Total volume | $0 | $637.4K |
| Liquidity | — | $57.4K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 14mo | 27mo |
| Tracked for | 11 days | 12 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If a data center moratorium is enacted in West Virginia before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure tha…
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.