Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027?
Vol $58.8K today · $60.4K total
Polymarket is 15 points higher than Kalshi (29% vs 14%). Polymarket trades about 193.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 29% | 14% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $58.8K | $304 |
| Total volume | $60.4K | $13.2K |
| Liquidity | $32.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.5K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 1 hours | 33 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.