Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Aleš Primc win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Vol $5.5K today · $36.1K total
Kalshi is 2 points higher than Polymarket (2% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Jun 4 vs Nov 16), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 2% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | -2.3 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $5.5K |
| Total volume | $0 | $36.1K |
| Liquidity | — | $26.6K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 56mo | 4d |
| Tracked for | 39 hours | 2 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Austin Beutner wins the 2030 Los Angeles Mayoral Election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.