Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 11 points higher than Kalshi (100% vs 89%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 11 vs Mar 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 100% | 89% |
| Change (24h) | +49.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $1 |
| Total volume | $0 | $209 |
| Liquidity | $748 | — |
| Open interest | — | $197 |
| Resolves | — | 162mo |
| Tracked for | 8 hours | 33 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming college football game between Western Michigan and Akron, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): Overtime is included if played. As a standalone over/under, the outcomes are "Over" (more than 125.5 rushing yards) and "Under" (125.5 or fewer). If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Thursday, November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If Derrick Henry records at least 14,000 career regular season rushing yards before Derrick Henry or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.