Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 24 points higher than Polymarket (68% vs 45%). Polymarket trades about 6725.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Mar 8 vs Nov 16), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 68% | 45% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -7.0 pt |
| Volume today | $4 | $26.9K |
| Total volume | $19 | $27.2K |
| Liquidity | — | $24.1K |
| Open interest | $6 | — |
| Resolves | 162mo | 6d |
| Tracked for | 32 days | 19 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Derrick Henry records at least 15,000 career regular season rushing yards before Derrick Henry or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.