Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 71 points higher than Polymarket (72% vs 1%). Polymarket trades about 136.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 10 vs Mar 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 72% |
| Change (24h) | -14.0 pt | +3.5 pt |
| Volume today | $545 | $4 |
| Total volume | $545 | $19 |
| Liquidity | $752 | — |
| Open interest | — | $6 |
| Resolves | — | 162mo |
| Tracked for | 7 hours | 32 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Aaron Jones Sr. records more than 59.5 rushing yards in this game, and to "Under" if Aaron Jones Sr. records 59.5 or fewer rushing yards. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If Derrick Henry records at least 15,000 career regular season rushing yards before Derrick Henry or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.