Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 32 points higher than Kalshi (100% vs 68%). Polymarket trades about 2627.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 16 vs Mar 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 100% | 68% |
| Change (24h) | +21.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $21K | $8 |
| Total volume | $21.1K | $23 |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $4 |
| Resolves | 5d | 162mo |
| Tracked for | 28 hours | 32 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the date range specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Kalshi
If Derrick Henry records at least 15,000 career regular season rushing yards before Derrick Henry or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.