Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 15 points higher than Kalshi (27% vs 12%). They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 27% | 12% |
| Change (24h) | -22.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $15 | $15 |
| Total volume | $10 | $12.7K |
| Liquidity | $965 | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.4K |
| Resolves | 5mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 2 hours | 31 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jensen or Lori Huang file for divorce or announce their definitive intention to divorce by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from either Lori or Jensen Huang, or their official authorized representatives, of their definitive intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when or whether the divorce ultimately occurs. Announcements that they are considering or open to a divorce will not qualify. The resolution source will be statements from Jensen Huang and/or Lori Huang, and their representatives, as well as relevant court records; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.