Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027?
Vol $1.1K today · $1.1K total
Will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO before Jul 1, 2027?
Vol $32.9K today · $33.5K total
Kalshi is 10 points higher than Polymarket (30% vs 21%). Kalshi trades about 29.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Jul 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 21% | 30% |
| Change (24h) | -32.5 pt | -19.5 pt |
| Volume today | $1.1K | $32.9K |
| Total volume | $1.1K | $33.5K |
| Liquidity | $3.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $31.8K |
| Resolves | 5mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 3 hours | 17 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA is officially announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Huang has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as CEO of NVIDIA. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as CEO, including to take another role at NVIDIA, and removal includes dismissal or termination by NVIDIA’s Board of Directors. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that …
Kalshi
If the CEO of NVIDIA Corporation has announced, or it has been announced on their behalf, that they have left their position as CEO after issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.