Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Jensen Huang be the world's second trillionaire?
Vol $136 today · $4.2K total
Polymarket is 7 points higher than Kalshi (16% vs 9%). Polymarket trades about 465.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 16% | 9% |
| Change (24h) | -1.0 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $63.1K | $136 |
| Total volume | $62.9K | $4.2K |
| Liquidity | $34.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.4K |
| Resolves | 53d | 75mo |
| Tracked for | 2 hours | 31 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jensen or Lori Huang file for divorce or announce their definitive intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from either Lori or Jensen Huang, or their official authorized representatives, of their definitive intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when or whether the divorce ultimately occurs. Announcements that they are considering or open to a divorce will not qualify. The resolution source will be statements from Jensen Huang and/or Lori Huang, and their representatives, as well as relevant court records; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Forbes reports that Jensen Huang has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.