Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO before Jul 1, 2027?
Vol $854.9K today · $1.1M total
Kalshi is 85 points higher than Polymarket (86% vs 1%). Kalshi trades about 1020.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jul 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 86% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +46.0 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $854.9K | $838 |
| Total volume | $1.1M | $838 |
| Liquidity | — | $4.5K |
| Open interest | $553.7K | — |
| Resolves | 8mo | 26mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 2 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the CEO of NVIDIA Corporation has announced, or it has been announced on their behalf, that they have left their position as CEO after issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Jensen Huang as CEO of NVIDIA Corporation by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of NVIDIA. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no successor is announced by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Jensen Huang (No Change)”. The resolution source will be public statements from NVIDIA Corporation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.