Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?
Vol $10.8K today · $189.1K total
Kalshi is 2 points higher than Polymarket (4% vs 1%). Polymarket trades about 19.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 5 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 4% |
| Change (24h) | -0.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $10.8K | $549 |
| Total volume | $189.1K | $68K |
| Liquidity | $16.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $32.1K |
| Resolves | — | 38mo |
| Tracked for | 9 hours | 31 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Kalshi
If Tom Francis is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.