Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Vol $1K today · $31.8K total
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
Vol $123 today · $172 total
Kalshi is 21 points higher than Polymarket (21% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 8.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 8 vs Jan 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 21% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $1K | $123 |
| Total volume | $31.8K | $172 |
| Liquidity | $19.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $124 |
| Resolves | 10h | 99mo |
| Tracked for | 9 hours | 29 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Nigel Farage formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.