Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will ACT New Zealand win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Vol $0 today · $9.2K total
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Addison-5 election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 3 points higher than Polymarket (4% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 8 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 4% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $0 |
| Total volume | $9.2K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $26.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 10h | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 13 hours | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Vermont House Addison-5, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.